ucla vs. UNC preview

Ok, time to stop fooling around. Get down to business. UCLA's next game is no laugher, though it's not exactly like UCLA's two exhibition games against Silute Lithuania or NBC Thunder were any cakewalks. But this is the big time. ACC v. Pac-10 time. Not a bunch of former players, or some guys who are in need of a good Foot Locker store.

Game: UCLA v. UNC, Great Alaska Shootout, ESPN, 9:00 p.m. EST; that's 6:00 pm PST for those of us in SoCal.

Prediction from SoCalHoops: UNC by about 15. Noted local basketball analyst Skip Koenig (you UCLA guys know who he is) agrees. "UCLA's gonna get blasted. The only question is by how much," said Koenig.

This is a first round game in the Great Alaska Shootout, which matches Carolina (3-0) vs. UCLA (which is officially listed at "0-0" by the UNC press guide--We all know UCLA's really 2-0, but according to UNC's press guide, those games didn't count. And they're probably right).

The game will be on ESPN tomorrow night. Carolina is ranked 2nd in the USA Today Poll, 4th in the AP. UCLA, in it's present configuration, is lucky to be ranked at all. Kris Johnson has been reinstated to practice, but won't play. We'll see if his practice has helped the rest of the guys. Center Jelani McCoy still isn't back, and UCLA really has not much height to matchup against the tall trees from UNC. J.R. Henderson is no center, and he's been playing out of position, and doesn't seem too happy about it. Maybe we'll see Rico Hines in the post again, or maybe even Brandon Loyd. Who knows.

This will be the sixth time the teams have met, and UNC leads the series 4-2. The last time these two teams met, Carolina won 88 to 81 in the NCAA tournament held on March 19, 1989. So it's been a considerable time since they've played. Thursday's game will be the "official" season opener for UCLA, and the last time UCLA opened the season against Carolina was in the 1985-86 season, when the Tar Heels won hammered the Bruins 107-70, in Chapel Hill.

Get ready for another UNC victory, as they will try to become the first-ever team to win three Great Alaska Shootouts. The Tar Heels won the event in 1980 and 1985 and are 6-0 in the tournament.

So how about those Bruins? Pesky, gutty little Bruins. We really hate that stuff, but it's beginning to be true. All-America candidates J.R. Henderson and Toby Bailey are the veterans (but you already know that); UCLA was 24-8 last year and won its third straight Pac-10 title, advancing to the NCAA Tournament before losing to Minnesota in the regional finals. Bailey and Henderson (and Jelani McCoy) were all on preseason lists for the Naismith and Wooden Player of the Year Awards, but don't expect it to go to McCoy this year, and it's unlikely that Toby will get it either (unless he stops forcing shots and over-dribbling against weaker opponents). In case you missed the exhibition season, UCLA hasn't exactly set the world on fire in it's first two exhibition games over Lithuania, 92-80 and a squeaker over NBC Thunder, 76-74.

The Bruins will probably start Bailey, Henderson, Baron Davis, Earl Watson, and . . .drumroll. . .Brandon Loyd? Say it ain't so coach. Too many guards, too short. But speedy. And maybe Brandon's worked this past week on what used to be his trademark trey. Hope so, because it wasn't working the last two games, and without it, he's a tenacious but short defender, and right now UCLA doesn't need more "short". They need BIG, or Tall. They don't need short. Get the picture. If Lavin wants to avoid a wipeout, he'll consider starting Travis Reed or Kevin Daley to give some additional height. Maybe even Rico Hines.

Here are the rosters. We've matched them up by height, not necessarily by the probable matchups by position or the starters. Judge for yourself:

University of North Carolina

University of California Los Angeles

Brendan Haywood 7'-0" 265 Fr.
Brian Bersticker 6'-11" 205 Fr.
Makhtar Ndiaye 6'-10" 231 Sr.
Ademola Okulaja 6'-9" 235 Jr.
Antawn Jamison 6'-9" 223 Jr.
Vince Carter 6'-7" 215 Jr.
Orlando Melendez 6'-7 1/2" 190 Fr.
Michael Brooker 6'-6" 200 Fr.
Brad Frederick 6'-5" 190 Jr.
Max Owens 6'-4" 190 Fr.
Shammond Williams 6'-3" 189 Sr.
Terrence Newby 6'-2" 210 So.
Ed Cota 6'-1" 185 So.

J.R. Henderson 6'-8 1/2" 233 Sr.
Travis Reed 6'-6" 243 Fr.
Kevin Daley 6'-6" 185 So.
Sean Farnham 6'-6" 210 So.
Toby Bailey 6'-5" 208 Sr.
Billy Knight 6'-4" 186 Fr.
Todd Ramasar 6'-4" 195 Fr.
Rico Hines 6'-3" 207 Fr.
Baron Davis 6'-1 1/2" 205 Fr.
Matt Harbour 6'-1" 180 So.
Earl Watson 6'-0" 183 Fr.
Brandon Loyd 5'-10" 200 Sr.
Vince McGautha 5'-11" 145 Sr.

So if Lavin tries the "small but fast" lineup (as opposed to what?), what's going to happen. Take a look at the Cal game last weekend. UNC had a 71-47 victory over California. But Cal played them almost even through the first half. How did Cal do it? Great defense, and huge size.

The Bears opened the game with perhaps the school's biggest starting lineup in history with a front line that measured 6'-10" (Kenyon Jones), 6'-11" (Sean Marks) and 7'-0" (Francisco Elson) and a backcourt comprised of a 6'-6" point (Michael Gill) and a 6'-5" shooting guard (Sean Jackson). The Bears defense held the Tar Heels to just 41 percent from the floor in the first 20 minutes and were virtually even at intermission, trailing by just a point at 26-25. In fact, both teams made the same number of field goals (11) and Cal outrebounded the Tar Heels by a 19-to-17 margin in the first half.

But then reality struck, and the Bears shot only 22.9% in the second half, and their defense fell apart. Raymond "Circus" King's decision-making was also a bit questionable when he came in at the point. UNC, which is 92-for-159 from the field this season (57.9 percent), shot 54.9 percent against Cal on Saturday, including an astonishing 70.8 percentage in the second half. Vince Carter and Jamison are human highlight-reels. Shammond Williams is having a great season. And Carolina has now figured out how to break a zone defense.

So, what can Lavin do? He's really got no size, at least not compared to those behemoths from Chapel Hill. And he's got a few players who make some really questionable decisions on the floor (Hrumph. . you know who you are). But there's also no doubt that UCLA is a better team Cal, at least if you believe what you read, so maybe they can keep it close.

Don't expect any miracles from UCLA. They're probably going to succumb; the only question is when and by how much. About the only thing that can be said in UCLA's favor that might equalize the contest (at least on paper) is that it's being played on a neutral court in a different time zone than UNC is used to being in.

And since it's Thanksgiving time, just be thankful that it's a pre-season tournament, and not March.