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SoCal High School & Prep Report

Yet More Punditry From
The Long Beach P-T--(February 18, 1998)

As if there haven't already been enough predictions. First there were ours, then the LA Times and the Daily News, then Michael Miller's at West Coast Hoops (which were probably the most insightful), then came Frank Burlison at the P-T (we wish he would have offered some really original observations) and now comes his Press-Telegram stablemate Steve Irvine with his own. Here's what he predicts:

SOUTHERN SECTION DIVISION I-AA SEEDS: 1. Artesia (26-1); 2. Poly (21-6); 3. Etiwanda (20-6); 4. Simi Valley (22-5).

TEAM TO BEAT: Artesia ripped through its schedule, losing only to L.A. City power Westchester, and could be headed toward a regional rematch with the Comets. Standout junior Jason Kapono and the Pioneers are certainly the class of the division after choosing to move up from II-A.

THIRD TIME'S A CHARM?: Defending champion Poly has lost two close decisions to Artesia and would like nothing better than to get another shot at the Pioneers. Six-foot-9 senior Ricky Anderson missed the final two games of the regular season due to a hurt ankle, but should be ready to go in Friday's opener.

DON'T OVERLOOK: Etiwanda has six losses, but all have come against quality opponents. Point guard Gary Colbert leads a talented group. Simi Valley has pretty much the same cast, including 6-foot-9 center Rafael Berumen, from a team that gave Poly fits in last year's playoffs. Bellflower (21-5) has the quickness and athletic ability to test anyone. Jordan's veterans Darren Peterson and Craig Calloway will lead their young teammates into the postseason. But, to keep playing, the Panthers (16-11) will have to beat Rowland, which is 19-6 and led by guard Julius Barnes (20.7 ppg), in the first round. Warren, if it gets by El Toro (18-8) in the first round, has a second-round date with Artesia. Los Alamitos (17-8) is hot at an opportune time, riding a seven-game winning streak, and receiving strong play from 6-7 Matt Komer (15 ppg) and 6-1 Rick Garibay (12.5). Ayala (20-6) and Capistrano Valley (18-8) are darkhorse candidates, but the teams play each other in the second round and the winner will probably face Poly.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Really, what about Simi. Just that they "gave Poly fits" last year. We know they've lost three games lately, most recently last Wednesday to Agoura (who?), but they're still a pretty solid and powerful team. And remember, they lost that game to Agoura without Raphael Berumen (6'-9" Jr. C) who was resting for the playoffs with a sore right elbow. And even though he's still listed as "day to day" there's no way he's going to miss the first round game against Santa Maria on Friday.

DIVISION I-A SEEDS: 1. Glendora (25-1); 2. Pacific (18-8); 3. Arlington (22-5); 4. Cajon (23-3).

FRYER'S FAVORITE: For the first time in a long while someone beside Mater Dei appears to be the team to beat. Top-seeded Glendora revolves around 6-foot-5 shooter Casey Jacobsen and has an excellent supporting cast. AFTER THAT: It's wide open. The other three seeds are all capable, but Mater Dei (18-7) could be the best bet to oppose Glendora in the championship game. The Monarchs lost three South Coast League games early on before fighting back to grab a share of the league championship and also beat nationally-ranked New Jersey St. Patrick's. Cerritos (12-13) has the difficult task of facing No. 2 seed Pacific (18-8) in the first round. St. John Bosco came on strong late in the regular season, including a Del Rey League upset of Bishop Montgomery. The Braves, though, have to go to Hart (17-9) in the first round.

Hmmm. Not bad. Pretty much right on. But we might go with Arlington, the other Regional No. 1 seed who might be able to over-matchup with Glendora.

DIVISION II-AA SEEDS: 1. Compton (23-5); 2. Santa Margarita (24-2); 3. Inglewood (19-5); 4. Brea Olinda (22-4).

FINAL BOUND?: It certainly isn't a stretch to think that Compton and Santa Margarita will be playing for the title on March 5 at the Bren Center. Santa Margarita, which was unbeaten until the last two weeks of the season, is led by 6-foot-1 point guard T.J. Williams. Compton's best players are point guard DeAndre Moore and center David Hamilton. The Tarbabes' strength, however, has been the ability for other guys - most notably Tito Maddox and Ray Ross - to step up. SOLID CONTENDERS: Brea Olinda or Mira Costa (19-7) could be a difficult semifinal opponent for Compton. Brea Olinda point Chris McMillian, a Wyoming signee, averages 24 points per game and is one of the division's best players. Gahr (16-10) finished second in a pretty good league - the SGVL - but the Gladiators were given a wild-card game and a possible first round game at Brea Olinda.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Not much to disagree with here. But if David Hamilton and Tito aren't hitting their shots, we might pick Brea Olinda. If Compton is "on" this is their's to lose.

DIVISION II-A SEEDS: 1. Dominguez (20-4); 2. Redondo Union (24-2); 3. Cathedral City (22-4); 4. Paso Robles (23-0).

FRYER ASKS, "DO YOU HAVE TO ASK?" : In case you are wondering, the favorite here is two-time defending Division II state champion Dominguez. It would be a huge upset if Tayshaun Prince and the Dons don't win the division again.

IN SOME OTHER GAMES: The other three seeds - Redondo, Cathedral City and Paso Robles - would be a pretty solid choice to win. Redondo sophomore Andrew Zahn (19.8 ppg) is sensational and has an excellent supporting cast. Paso Robles, the section's lone undefeated entry, has a very good player in 6-foot-7 Dan Robins (20 ppg) and Cathedral City's Caleb Gervin (31 ppg) is the division's leading scorer.

DARK HORSES: Perris (20-7) has only lost to good teams and has wins over Fremont, Mater Dei and Manual Arts. Six-foot-3 Damon Jackson (20 ppg) is the top player. Muir (20-6) is not big, the the Mustangs did win the Pacific League and have a non-league triumph over Poly. Sonora (22-4) and Servite (20-6) are solid, but the two meet in the second round and the winner will get a quarterfinal dose of Dominguez.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Can't argue with much of this. Whatever happens, it's irrelevant unless it is happening to Dominguez. And since the cat is out of the bag about "transfer" rumors, in particular Tyson Chandler (7'-0" Fr. C) and Eric Soderberg (7'-0" Fr. C), the word we are hearing is that Tyson is thinking about transferring to Mater Dei for next season. We don't believe it will happen, but that's the word on the street. And what will become of Eric Soderberg if that happens. There's talk of him transferring, but we doubt it. His dad is one of the assistant coaches for McKnight, and he himself played ball in Orange County for Lute Olsen when he was in high school, and like it or not, McKnight is one of the winningest coaches around. With the two of them there, can you say "twin towers"? Again, we'll believe it when we really see it.

DIVISION III-AA SEEDS: 1. Ocean View (21-4); 2. Barstow (22-3); 3. La Canada (22-5); 4. Magnolia (22-4).

TOUGH TRIP: Mayfair has an excellent group of youngsters, but they'll need to play like veterans to advance in the playoffs. The Monsoons play at Bolsa Grande in the first round and could have a second-round matchup with top-seeded Ocean View.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Not much analysis here. We really like Magnolia and would probably pick them over Ocaean View. Call us nuts, but any team which can beat Brea Olinda twice in one season is one tough team.

DIVISION III-A SEEDS: 1. Chaminade (23-1); 2. Bishop Montgomery (18-6); 3. San Dimas (22-4); 4. Santa Paula (20-3).

NEEDS AN UPSET: Centennial was bounced from the playoffs a year ago with a quarterfinal loss to top-seeded and eventual state champion Harvard-Westlake. This year, the Apaches, if they get to the quarterfinals, will probably face top-seeded Chaminade at that point.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Astute analysis. We think that Chaminade could actually have a tough time against Centennial, but we'd have to go with Chaminade to take the entire division.

DIVISION IV-AA SEEDS: 1. Twentynine Palms (22-3); 2. Santa Ana Calvary Chapel (20-6); 3. Marshall (17-5); 4. Santa Maria St. Joseph (17-8)

OVERLOOKED AGAIN: St. Paul got bounced around in Del Rey League play a year ago, but got hot in the playoffs and won a CIF title. Does anybody think the same thing could happen again?

SoCalHoops Commentary: The analysis is getting thinner and thinner all the time. We like Marshall, Duarte and Santa Maria St. Joe's, but overall, this division has probably got the weakest talent pool of any. Those teams in the Divison are good; we aren't saying they're not. We're just saying there's not much competition for them.

DIVISION IV-A SEEDS: 1. Crossroads (17-6); 2. Serra (19-8); 3. Bell-Jeff (14-12); 4. Verbum Dei (15-5).

COULD BE A QUICK EXIT: Valley Christian has to travel to face talented Verbum Dei in the first round tonight. It would take a huge upset to keep the Crusaders playing.

SoCalHoops Commentary: You call that a "prediction" Steve? We know you can do better than that. That's like saying that "somewhere in the world on February 18, there will be an earthquake". Or "the sun will set in the west", or some other immutable and undisputable fact. How about telling us about Crossroads, Bell-Jeff, Serra or Verbum Dei? How about a real prediction. We love your stuff Steve, but c'mon, go out on a limb on this one. BTW, we really like Bell-Jeff and Ruben, but we doubt they've got the horses to pull it off, and we're looking for Crossroads, or maybe Serra to take it all. But you never know, they looked pretty impressive tonight against Providence.

DIVISION V-AA SEEDS: 1. Montclair Prep (23-3); 2. Chadwick (12-14); 3. Bishop Diego (18-5); 4. Pacific Hills (19-8).

COULD BE A SURPRISE: St. Anthony is a victory away from a 20-win season and, if things go right, has a good shot to make a surprising run at a title game appearance. The Saints have a good mix of inside-outside and shooting guard Joe Luyben is a deadly outside shooter. A quarterfinal matchup with Chadwick is possible. Mary Star plays host to Masada in the first round, Downey Calvary Chapel welcomes Apple Valley Christian and Avalon visits South Bay Lutheran. The winner of each game has a tough second-round match.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Hmmm. Not bad. Could be a bit more in-depth and less cryptic, but when you get down to D-V-AA, there's really only Montclair Prep, and then there's everyone else. Rocky Steryo of Montclair Prep made eight three-point baskets in an 89-53 victory over Calabasas on Wednesday, giving him 243 for his career and moving him into 10th place on the state all-time list, according to Cal-Hi Sports. The senior guard needs 17 three-point baskets in the playoffs to move into ninth place. So Steve, how about telling us about that?

L.A. CITY SECTION DIVISION 4-A SEEDS: 1. Westchester (22-3); 2. Fremont (25-4); 3. L.A. Washington (17-6); 4. Crenshaw (17-3).

OUTLOOK: This is generally when Crenshaw is at its best, but the Cougars were upset in the final week of the regular season by L.A. Washington. Which means that Crenshaw winds up in the same bracket with top-seeded Westchester and sets up a tremendous semifinal. Fremont should work its way through the other bracket.

SoCalHoops Commentary: Ok Steve, we can read, but how about telling us who's going to win if Crenshaw plays Westchester. We say if because first Crenshaw has to go through Grant and Gilbert Arenas on Friday. Now that will be a game. And maybe Adir Levy will be back from his surgery. We doubt it, but we can hope, can't we? At least Grant will have forward Laron Harris, who is the "charge" leader. He took 26 charges this season. "He hits the floor a lot," Grant Coach Howard Levine said in mock seriousness to the Times.

So that's it. Now don't you feel better informed. We know that we do. Now go out and watch some games on Friday.