rafael

SoCalHoops Recruiting News

Brick Oettinger On The Rise
And Fall Of The "Market"--(July 15, 1998)

If college recruiting were like investing in stocks, lots of people would be in jail for violation of securities laws. Brick Oettinger writes a column for The Sporting News, and his latest one is a recap of what he saw (or what he thought he saw. . . is there a difference? Maybe.) at the adidas ABCD camp which ended last Saturday. According to him, some players' "stock" "rose," while others' "stock" "dropped." Maybe we should publish a daily "stock index" or sell futures. Hey, that's what this recruiting stuff is all about anyway, right.

Wrong. It's really just one guy's opinion. That's all. Nothing more and nothing less. Maybe we're giving Oettinger more importance than he deserves. Maybe college coaches actually evaluate talent themselves and don't rely on "experts" for who is a good player and who isn't. You think so?

We're not going to reprint the whole article, but we'll give you some selected highlights of what he had to say about a few SoCal players. Some of them were kind words. Some were pretty neutral. And some were pretty unkind, particularly when you're dealing with a guy's future and his chances to get a college scholarship.

About Jason Kapono, whom he rated as one of the 15 Best Seniors in the country, Oettinger wrote:

F Jason Kapono, 6-8, Lakewood (Cal.) Artesia, whose playing style and physique remind us of incoming North Carolina freshman Jason Capel.

Of Bryan Wethers, also one of the Top 15 Best Seniors, he wrote:

G Brian Wethers, 6-5, Murrieta (Cal.) Murrieta Valley, a wing scorer who has a lot of weapons in his arsenal.

Oettinger also identified the 10 Best Juniors at ABCD, but his list actually included 12 players, including two from SoCal:

G DeShawn Stevenson, 6-5, Fresno (Cal.) Washington Union, whose outside shot has increased its reliability.

F Apolinar Fernandez, 6-9, Lakewood (Cal.) Artesia [Oettinger said nothing, so we guess this must be "Honorable Mention"-- the big problem with Oettinger's observation is that Fernandez is a sophomore, not a junior]

But getting back to the premise of this article (the "stock" metaphor), Oettinger focused on two players from each region (West, North, East, South) whose stock had "risen" or "fallen" based upon their performances at camp. Here's what he had to say about two of our own SoCal guys:

WEST:

Stock rising: G Gilbert Arenas, 6-4, Van Nuys (Cal.) Grant, a quick athlete who played both ends of the court quite well at the adidas ABCD Camp.

Disappointing: (tie) C/F Rafael Berumen, 6-9, Simi Valley (Cal.) High, whom we consider FAR overrated (lacks post moves and has slow feet on defense), based on watching him in five games at the adidas ABCD Camp; and G Jamal Crawford, 6-4 1/2, Seattle (Wash.) Rainier Beach, who looked spectacular on film in leading his high school team to the state large-school title, but was too often out of control and uncerebral in decision-making at the Nike All-America Camp.

We're certain that Gil's stock "rose" and that more people are thinking of "buying" into Gil. He's looking at virtually every Pac-10 school, including UCLA (yes, Lavin was seriously looking at him the other night at West Coast All-Star camp).

But is the bottom really falling out of the market for Rafael?

We don't think so. At least not for any college coach who really knows what he's watching. Sure, Rafael's performance at this 5 day camp was probably not what he wanted it to be. So what. We heard from several of our friends and associates who also saw him play at camp, who also understood the circumstances of why he was even there in the first place, and it's a pretty impressive testament to the young man's desire and ability to play through pain that he even attended.

Rafael had injured his achilles tendon about a month ago. Apparently he suffered a partial tear of his achilles, and it's a pretty amazing thing that he wasn't out for the entire summer. His doctors cleared him to play about 4 weeks ago, but required him to sit for an entire week without stressing the heel before allowing him to go to ABCD camp. While there, he was in a lot of pain, and therefore had to adjust his normal inside-outside style of play solely to the perimeter. So he would get the ball, and not even try to go to the basket, but would step out and shoot. But because of the foot pain, his shot was flat, or at least flat-footed, and he couldn't get his legs into the shot at all. Given these circumstances, it's remarkable that he played at all. And he still played well enough, and enough college coaches knew his game and had seen tape of him (yeah, most guys who are interested in a player also see tape) that he got plenty of calls and will definitely get some big time offers. We think that USC and Washington State might have the best shots right now, but look for Oregon as well.

Rafael also showed up at West Coast All-Star Camp last week, and played respectably, if not forcefully. Because of the pain in his foot, he was unable to play for more than a couple of games, and not wanting to risk further injury, didn't play on Monday. We understand that his Rockfish coaches will limit his time in Las Vegas and they'll be keeping their fingers crossed that he can finish out the week.

There are plenty of schools out there that are still "buying" and we think the market is just fine for Rafael. We predict a future uptick. Especially when it really counts.