mid valley predictions

The Valley Pac-8 Conference actually consists of two separate leagues, the "4A" East Valley League and the "3A" Mid Valley League. The designations 4A and 3A really have very little meaning except in a historical context, and they will be absolutely meaningless for the playoffs this year. And so will league titles and championships too. Well, they will be to the seeding committee which will determine the top 16 teams in the City for purposes of constructing the City Section "Championship" bracket and the "Division" title bracket. The former is intended to have the top 16 teams in the City, while the latter will have the next 16 teams (17-32). Only the City bracket will compete for the right to send the top two teams to the State Championship tournament.

Nevertheless, league titles are still important to some people, (and they will probably count for something on the seeding committee as well), so we've decided to get out our crystal ball (at least before the Daily News' Vincent Bonsignore or the LA Times' Eric Sondheimer get theirs out) and make some educated guesses at where we think the various schools will finish in the two leagues in the Valley Pac-8 Conference races for City Section.

This is a league which may have some teams competing for the No. 17 through No. 32 spots in the playoffs, that is if they get lucky. We're pretty sure Monroe will be there, and they might even make the top 16, but that will be a struggle and they'll have to work really hard. But then there are only so many truly elite programs, about four or five (Crenshaw, Manual, Fremont--not the one that showed up at the We Care Tournament, Westchester, Fairfax, and probably a handful from the Valley too. After that, there may be a spot for Monroe among the top 16.

No. 1: Monroe: Coach Don Loperena is new, and so is most of the team with the exception of a few returners, but they have heart, style and when we saw them this past week at the We Care Classic (where they finished 4th overall, losing to Hollywood in the 3rd place game), they not only surprised us, but they looked to be in about mid-season form. The team returns Eric Serna (6'-7" Sr. PF/C) and Jose Sanchez (6'-6" Sr. F). Serna is a great outside shooter and can also go inside, while Sanchez is really more of a three, an outside shooter who also slashes to the hole occasionally. Marcus West (6'-2" Sr SG/SF) is a good defender and has a nice shot out to about 18', while Cesar Guttierez (6'-2" Sr. SG) is strong, can run the floor and rebounds well. Cesar Peregia (5'-9" Sr. PG) is really third off the bench at the point, but we think probably has better ball handling skills than No. 2 at the one, Howard Johnokushi (5'-7" Sr. PG) who tends to outrun his own dribble and lacks the height to see over taller defenders. But the team also has Robert Palofax (5'-9" Jr. PG) who fortunately for Monroe plays almost every minute of every game, and he's a smooth, capable team leader, with good speed, nice lateral quickness, and best of all he's smart. Definitely all-league material.

No. 2. Reseda: We haven't heard anything new about this team, and haven't talked with coach Dave Enowitz, in his third year as varsity coach, but if everything works out like it should, Reseda should return several good players, including Larry Knox (6'-3" Jr. SG/SF) Jaime Sibrian ( 6'-2" Sr. F), Michael Brignac (6'-2" So. SG/SF), Engleberth Alvarez (5'-8" Sr. PG/SG), and several others. Two years ago, Reseda was 0-20. Last year they finished 9-16 overall, and made the playoffs, finishing 4-6 in conference play. They will continue to get better, but unless they've got some truly outstanding athletes lurking in the wings, or who have transferred in, don't expect big things. Second place is about as good as it gets.

No. 3 Van Nuys: Coach Kevin Kanemura went from coaching a City 3A Championship team to one of the worst teams in the city (at least based on their record.) The team finished 1-16 last year (including games lost in pre-season tournaments). They did have a couple of bright spots: First, they beat Poly, which is why we have them ranked ahead of the Parrots, and second, their season ended. And actually Van Nuys does return one of the better shooters in the Valley region in Abe Morabbi (6'-2" Jr. PG/SG/F/C), who really doesn't play all of those positions naturally, but was required to because no one else would. Sure, they fielded about 12 players on the team, but no one was willing to work together, and they just didn't have the talent to beat anyone. They will probably also return Phillip Truong (5'-7" Sr. G), Rocky Daniels (5'-10" Sr. G), Kay Nava (6'-3" Sr. F), Josh Brody (6'-5" Sr. F/C), Jatin Mehta (5'-10" Sr. SG) and
Jason Jones (6'-3" Sr. PF/C), and hopefully they'll have had some other more talented guys enroll this season. Third is about the best we see for Van Nuys this year.

No. 4 Polytechnic: We know even less about Poly this year than we do about Reseda or Van Nuys. But we do know at least two things about them: First, they were the only team that Van Nuys beat last year, a singularly notable low-light. And second, they had Ellis Richardson, not a bad player individually, but not the best either. Richardson (6'-3" SG), who we haven't heard a word about in more than 6 months, was the only senior out of Los Angeles foolish enough to "declare" for the NBA draft. Poly didn't make the playoffs, and while Ellis was a good player, needless to say, he wasn't selected, and has forfeited his eligibility to play in a Division I school by staying in for the draft. He's now considered a "professional" but has no where to ply his trade. Bad choice. It will be interesting to see who has shown up to play at Poly this year. No better than fourth, unless they can beat Van Nuys.

Well, there it is. Sorry for what may seem like brutal candor (at least when it comes to Van Nuys and Poly), but if last year is any guide as to what can be expected, it's probably the best we can offer. And of course, we really don't know a thing about either Van Nuys or Poly, and haven't seen any of their returning players this year, so the criticism might be unfair. Time will tell. We are willing to make a few All-League Preseason selections though based on what we know. Here they are:

Mid Valley All-League Preseason Players
Monroe Eric Serna Jose Sanchez Robert Palofax	Reseda Larry Knox Michael Brignac	Van Nuys Abe Morrabi	Poly ?????